;

Author Topic: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About  (Read 9015 times)

The Watcher

  • Cishet White Male
  • ******
  • Posts: 1920
  • Awards Wounded in the line of posting. Goon or Ex-Goon
    • Awards
The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« on: March 17, 2017, 12:16:25 PM »
+6
The First Law of Economists: For every economist, there exists an equal and opposite economist.
The Second Law of Economists: They’re both wrong.

Suddenly everyone is talking about another economic dip. Personally I think most doomsday preppers are getting fatigued on waiting. So what's your $.02? Is this one real or another Econ magician talking nonsense?
Message me when the next SASS clone gets started

InsideOutside

  • Unperson
  • *****
  • Posts: 570
    • Awards
Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #1 on: March 17, 2017, 12:23:30 PM »
+3
oh theres a very real one lurking out there

commercial real estate is in the shitter and only getting worse. how bad is it? wall street is using the same shorting instruments they used in 2008 to get rich off mortgage defaults to bet that retail space will default. the few retailers that are actually profitable are going straight into the shitter if suddenly the strip malls and outparcels they occupy are now in ownership limbo with nobody doing maintenance, security, etc.

enjoy the next bubble bursting, peasants

tl;dr links below for those interested

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-13/wall-street-has-found-its-next-big-short-in-u-s-credit-market

http://news.morningstar.com/all/dow-jones/retail/201703073449/short-sellers-target-mall-reits.aspx




PUSSY CANCER

  • Cishet White Male
  • ******
  • Posts: 3673
  • Awards Drinkin' and Postin' Goon or Ex-Goon cold, dead hands United Statesian Wounded in the line of posting. The Gentry Jew
    • Awards
Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #2 on: March 17, 2017, 12:26:36 PM »
+1
What would be the catalyst?  Where is the "chain of payments" supposed to break down?
sheeeeeeeeeeeeeiiiiiiiiiiiitttttttttttttttttttt

InsideOutside

  • Unperson
  • *****
  • Posts: 570
    • Awards
Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #3 on: March 17, 2017, 12:32:18 PM »
+3
What would be the catalyst?  Where is the "chain of payments" supposed to break down?

oh gee i dont know maybe something like sears, jc penny, and macys eliminating hundreds of anchor stores on their spiral towards bankruptcy OH WAIT

:happening:

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/17/jc-penney-says-which-stores-it-will-close.html

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/02/macys_closing_34_additional_lo.html

http://www.businessinsider.com/sears-hints-at-more-store-closures-2017-3





Backpfeifengesicht

  • 5000 Posters Club
  • Knights
  • *
  • Posts: 6008
  • Awards Deplorables Anonymous For Dixie's land we'll take our stand! Methodist Texan cold, dead hands Better dead than red Goon or Ex-Goon
    • Awards
Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #4 on: March 17, 2017, 01:17:55 PM »
+3
So what's your $.02?

Depends. Is my 2˘ before or after the recession hits?
Quote from: George Lincoln Rockwell
The Conservatives have a slogan which I think is despicable and defeatist: "It's better to be dead than red." And the Commies and Liberals have a slogan which is even worse, it's treason, they say: "It's better to be red than dead." We say this: "You don't have to be Red and you don't have to be Dead. Not dead. Not Red. Dead Reds"


vietnamese bukkake swat raid

  • Cishet White Male
  • JIDF
  • *
  • Posts: 2154
  • popping shekels
  • Awards Deplorables Drinkin' and Postin' Classicist Wounded in the line of posting. Goon or Ex-Goon 420
    • Awards
Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #5 on: March 17, 2017, 01:41:13 PM »
+5
Apparently I love cock more thanthey'redoes already figuring in the next bailout into their calculations for the future, lel here we go again


Quote
I want to personally apologize to every reader who was hurt by the Sausage Party review. I failed you as a senior editor of this website and I failed you as an ally. I am wholly sorry for the pain and anger I caused you. I offer you no justification. I was blinded by my own whiteness existing inside a system of white supremacy. I must do better. I will do better.

a torrent of piss

  • Cishet White Male
  • Grand Inquisitors
  • *
  • Posts: 4457
  • Fuck You Sea Dad
    • Awards
Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #6 on: March 17, 2017, 01:44:38 PM »
+3
This will kill Gamestop.

PUSSY CANCER

  • Cishet White Male
  • ******
  • Posts: 3673
  • Awards Drinkin' and Postin' Goon or Ex-Goon cold, dead hands United Statesian Wounded in the line of posting. The Gentry Jew
    • Awards
Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #7 on: March 17, 2017, 02:29:03 PM »
+1
What would be the catalyst?  Where is the "chain of payments" supposed to break down?

oh gee i dont know maybe something like sears, jc penny, and macys eliminating hundreds of anchor stores on their spiral towards bankruptcy OH WAIT

:happening:

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/17/jc-penney-says-which-stores-it-will-close.html

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/02/macys_closing_34_additional_lo.html

http://www.businessinsider.com/sears-hints-at-more-store-closures-2017-3

lol at thinking this is going to cause a massive recession/depression. 
sheeeeeeeeeeeeeiiiiiiiiiiiitttttttttttttttttttt

InsideOutside

  • Unperson
  • *****
  • Posts: 570
    • Awards
Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #8 on: March 17, 2017, 02:47:23 PM »
+3
What would be the catalyst?  Where is the "chain of payments" supposed to break down?

oh gee i dont know maybe something like sears, jc penny, and macys eliminating hundreds of anchor stores on their spiral towards bankruptcy OH WAIT

:happening:

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/17/jc-penney-says-which-stores-it-will-close.html

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/02/macys_closing_34_additional_lo.html

http://www.businessinsider.com/sears-hints-at-more-store-closures-2017-3

lol at thinking this is going to cause a massive recession/depression.

tally up every single retail shitty slightly above minimum wage hourly job and every barely at median income salaried job that happen in strip malls and regular malls. theyre all going away if the big three anchors all go under in close succession.

im sure hundreds of thousands of people with a high school education will be able to find equivalent jobs in the manufacturing, service, tech and medical industries


Hollywood Shabat Goy Yaro

  • Cishet White Male
  • ******
  • Posts: 1881
  • ギューン野郎
  • Awards Deplorables Generation Identitaire Californian 420 Scrooge Better dead than red Goon or Ex-Goon Anonymous
    • Awards
Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #9 on: March 17, 2017, 03:11:15 PM »
+13
A Republican Mega Hitler is back in office so I guess it's time for the Jewstream media to bring back news of economic despair. 


Quote

I just wanted to live a normal life.  Have a wife and kids, be a father.  But then my other side tells me that I want to get breast and butt implants and get a job working as a plus size model for Victoria's Secret.

Nate Higgers

  • Cishet White Male
  • ******
  • Posts: 4448
  • Awards Rethuglikkkan Autistic Faggot Futurist You can't know! United Statesian Goon or Ex-Goon
    • Awards
Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #10 on: March 17, 2017, 03:32:06 PM »
+13
We never really left The Great Recession/The Great Depression 2 btw

Bill Wilkins

  • Guest
Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #11 on: March 17, 2017, 03:47:08 PM »
+1
America will still be spending most of its money on policing the world during and after another recession/depression. You can take that to the bank.

Bitter Weirdo

  • Cishet White Male
  • Space Racists
  • *
  • Posts: 2953
  • Shitposters of the World Unite
  • Awards Deplorables old cold, dead hands Goon or Ex-Goon Californian
    • Awards
Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #12 on: March 17, 2017, 03:59:03 PM »
+4
This will kill Gamestop.

ATP making sure the REALLY important aspects of this story get mentioned.

a torrent of piss

  • Cishet White Male
  • Grand Inquisitors
  • *
  • Posts: 4457
  • Fuck You Sea Dad
    • Awards
Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #13 on: March 17, 2017, 04:03:14 PM »
+1
This will kill Gamestop.

ATP making sure the REALLY important aspects of this story get mentioned.
I have still not forgiven them for fucking up my pre-order of the special edition of Metal gear Solid 3 Subsistence and giving me a regular copy.

I hope they burn.

Drain The Swamp And Fill It With Piss

  • Cishet White Male
  • Space Racists
  • *
  • Posts: 2670
  • gas the I love cock more thanjewsdoes
  • Awards Killed in the Line of Posting Goon or Ex-Goon Fuck you, dad! United Statesian You can't know! TNE Veteran Soldier cold, dead hands The Gentry Classicist
    • Awards
Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #14 on: March 17, 2017, 04:23:49 PM »
+6
commercial real estate

also: student loan obligations

Apparently I love cock more thanthey'redoes already figuring in the next bailout into their calculations for the future, lel here we go again

A Republican Mega Hitler is back in office so I guess it's time for the Jewstream media to bring back news of economic despair. 

:smalljewrub:

We never really left The Great Recession/The Great Depression 2 btw

this is really the meat of it in my opinion.  most of the j-o-b-s created under barack ":nigganomics:" obama were minimum-wage shit jobs that never came close to replacing the higher paying skilled jobs that were lost during the recession.  Yet somehow property values have mostly recovered and the stock market indexes are breaking records every week.  You can either believe it's because 1) obama's economic policy was that good or 2) because it cost big institutions literally nothing to borrow money for the last decade.  but it's also important to remember obama's goal was never fixing the economy (I think because it would be impossible for any politician to really fix it in the current political climate), it was to make it "good enough" so he could run his ass out of washington and say, "look how good it was guys, it's not my fault", whether it was Donald or Hillary that he would be casting the blame on.

I've had a really bad feeling about whoever was elected next was inheriting a mess,  and i've felt this way for at least the last year.  There are a shitload of indicators beyond the ones already mentioned in this thread. 

not to get all  :alex: but you better be fucking prepared.  I think this round is going to be way worse than the last time.
« Last Edit: March 17, 2017, 04:26:08 PM by Drain The Swamp And Fill It With Piss »
This forum, like all iterations before it was started by a small group of people, many of whom have been posting together on various spinoffs going on 15 years now.

Dog's plans for the forum have been extensively discussed with 3 of the other 4 fagmins, via group PM, over a period of months.

The only ones "subverting" the forum here are the swole cru/wn/alt rightards who, by their own admission, want to change this forum from what it was, was intended to be, and what the former and current owners want it to be.

Bartnopolis

  • Enemy Of The State
  • ****
  • Posts: 493
  • It's good to want things.
  • Awards You can't know! Fascist Deplorables Anonymous
    • Awards
Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #15 on: March 17, 2017, 04:27:04 PM »
+2
We never really left The Great Recession/The Great Depression 2 btw

How dare you hurt Barry Soetoro's Fee-Fees!  :madgoon:

Bill Wilkins

  • Guest
Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #16 on: March 17, 2017, 04:40:59 PM »
+1
not to get all  :alex: but you better be fucking prepared.  I think this round is going to be way worse than the last time.

Oh absolutely. A combination of outsourcing, mass immigration, and automation is simply not going to end well.

Avoid big cities when the bell drops, fellas.

J Dog

  • Cishet White Male
  • ******
  • Posts: 3369
  • Good luck Reality. Hope this turns out alright.
    • Awards
Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #17 on: March 17, 2017, 04:44:48 PM »
+11
lol at Sears being considered an "anchor store" in 2017.  My local Sears closed last year and they already tore down the building and put up smaller retail spaces in its spot.  Places like Sears are as much a blight as they are an anchor.  You're better off putting a Chinkstew Express, Laundromat and dentist office in its place than having your strip mall live or die on an outdated retail store that nobody goes to.


Drain The Swamp And Fill It With Piss

  • Cishet White Male
  • Space Racists
  • *
  • Posts: 2670
  • gas the I love cock more thanjewsdoes
  • Awards Killed in the Line of Posting Goon or Ex-Goon Fuck you, dad! United Statesian You can't know! TNE Veteran Soldier cold, dead hands The Gentry Classicist
    • Awards
Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #18 on: March 17, 2017, 05:03:49 PM »
+8
lol at Sears being considered an "anchor store" in 2017.  My local Sears closed last year and they already tore down the building and put up smaller retail spaces in its spot.  Places like Sears are as much a blight as they are an anchor.  You're better off putting a Chinkstew Express, Laundromat and dentist office in its place than having your strip mall live or die on an outdated retail store that nobody goes to.

off the top of my head:

JC Penny
Boscovs
Payless
Macy's
American Eagle
Office Depot
Barnes and Noble

are all struggling mightily and closing stores.  inidividually, sure, who gives a shit, but this is a trend, not the anecdotal ills of one unfortunate company. for god's sake, fucking walmart is closing 150 stores this year.  w-a-l-m-a-r-t is closing stores.  how is your butthole not puckering at the thought of america's single largest employer shuttering 150 stores?
This forum, like all iterations before it was started by a small group of people, many of whom have been posting together on various spinoffs going on 15 years now.

Dog's plans for the forum have been extensively discussed with 3 of the other 4 fagmins, via group PM, over a period of months.

The only ones "subverting" the forum here are the swole cru/wn/alt rightards who, by their own admission, want to change this forum from what it was, was intended to be, and what the former and current owners want it to be.

The Bad Goy

  • Enemy Of The State
  • ****
  • Posts: 295
    • Awards
Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #19 on: March 17, 2017, 05:28:42 PM »
+4
lol at Sears being considered an "anchor store" in 2017.  My local Sears closed last year and they already tore down the building and put up smaller retail spaces in its spot.  Places like Sears are as much a blight as they are an anchor.  You're better off putting a Chinkstew Express, Laundromat and dentist office in its place than having your strip mall live or die on an outdated retail store that nobody goes to.

Sears was geared at suburban white men who took care of their lawns, homes, and automobiles. Of course they didn't survive the  :obammy: economy. Home Depot and Lowe's will probably go the same way.

There's still plenty of urban real estate bubbles too, a lot of it fueled by foreigners. In my area Chinese people are dropping $500K+ on every dilapidated shithole they can their hands on, half of which gets rented out to illegals or idiot college kids. People will actual salaries are moving out. In other words:

Oh absolutely. A combination of outsourcing, mass immigration, and automation is simply not going to end well.

Avoid big cities when the bell drops, fellas.

Especially if you live in liberal utopia and aren't allowed to own firearms.






InsideOutside

  • Unperson
  • *****
  • Posts: 570
    • Awards
Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #20 on: March 17, 2017, 05:49:20 PM »
+1
lol at Sears being considered an "anchor store" in 2017.  My local Sears closed last year and they already tore down the building and put up smaller retail spaces in its spot.  Places like Sears are as much a blight as they are an anchor.  You're better off putting a Chinkstew Express, Laundromat and dentist office in its place than having your strip mall live or die on an outdated retail store that nobody goes to.

youre right, they would be. but [outdated dying anchor store] still pays the rent on a lease that was negotiated decades ago so what are you going to do, kick them out to pour your own money into knocking it down and building smaller spaces? you only spend your own money when you have no other option.

laugh at the dinosaurs all you want, but theres still a bunch of idiots leasing rent check to rent check with no long term plan b

asip

  • Unperson
  • *****
  • Posts: 666
  • Awards Motorcyclist United Statesian Deplorables You Shall Not Pass!
    • Awards
Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #21 on: March 17, 2017, 05:55:51 PM »
+9
lol at Sears being considered an "anchor store" in 2017.  My local Sears closed last year and they already tore down the building and put up smaller retail spaces in its spot.  Places like Sears are as much a blight as they are an anchor.  You're better off putting a Chinkstew Express, Laundromat and dentist office in its place than having your strip mall live or die on an outdated retail store that nobody goes to.

off the top of my head:

JC Penny
Boscovs
Payless
Macy's
American Eagle
Office Depot
Barnes and Noble

are all struggling mightily and closing stores.  inidividually, sure, who gives a shit, but this is a trend, not the anecdotal ills of one unfortunate company. for god's sake, fucking walmart is closing 150 stores this year.  w-a-l-m-a-r-t is closing stores.  how is your butthole not puckering at the thought of america's single largest employer shuttering 150 stores?
I've been to one of the wal-marts on the list, and if the others on the list are at all similar to the one I visited, it's 100% because of local niggerdy.

Bitter Weirdo

  • Cishet White Male
  • Space Racists
  • *
  • Posts: 2953
  • Shitposters of the World Unite
  • Awards Deplorables old cold, dead hands Goon or Ex-Goon Californian
    • Awards
Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #22 on: March 17, 2017, 06:03:42 PM »
+1
Uh oh, could this be a sign of the multifamily sector shitting the bed?  :

http://www.thestate.com/news/business/article138610933.html

Quote

Copper Beech Townhomes, one of the first in the current wave of private student housing complexes in Columbia, was sold at auction last week in a foreclosure sale, Richland County court officials said.

The 1,002-bedroom complex, off Bluff Road near Interstate 77, was purchased by Southern Drive LLC for $22 million, according to Joseph P. Strickland, Richland County Master in Equity.

Southern Drive, a Delaware-based company, sued the previous owners, Copper Beech Townhome Communities Twenty-Five LLC, for nonpayment, court records show.

The complex, which opened in 2007, will remain open and rebrand itself, according to its new management company, Southern Management Partners.

“Copper Beech will soon have the new name The Southern @1051,” said Angela L. Smith, a Southern Management partner, in an email to The State newspaper.

“With the change in ownership ... the students will experience all of the excitement and energy of the rebranding, renovation of the student center and pool, fun-filled community events for the students, bus/shuttle service for the students to USC, Benedict (College) and Allen (University) along with many other additional enhancements,” Smith said.

Copper Beech Townhomes is a sprawling, gated residential community built on a former industrial site between Bluff Road and Shop Road. Designed to appeal to college students, the complex is spacious and features a large swimming pool.

But occupancy rates have struggled at the complex as new student housing offerings closer to the city have continued to be erected since 2007. Last year in August, Copper Beech had a 40 percent occupancy rate, management officials there said. The previous year, in 2015, the occupancy rate was 100 percent, the company reported



How the fuck does your occupancy drop 60% in a year? :tuss: Could it be that the complex was built with outsized expectations re: ability of tenants to pay because in fact the market for luxury apartments is a lot smaller than developers would like to believe?

The rest of the article mentions 2 other complexes that seem to be doing well, but the thing is that these sort of projects have sprung up all over the country, and all of them are built under the same assumption: people can and will pay asking prices for rent. What's not accounted for is that all of these developments are going to be competing with each other for tenants which will means they need to be price competitive, which in turn will cause rents to drop.

Fuck, SF and the East Bay are apparently seeing drops year over year in rental rates, something most analysts would not have seen coming (even though it'll appear obvious in hindsight, much like the housing bubble).



InsideOutside

  • Unperson
  • *****
  • Posts: 570
    • Awards
Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #23 on: March 17, 2017, 06:11:08 PM »
+1
off the top of my head:

JC Penny
Boscovs
Payless
Macy's
American Eagle
Office Depot
Barnes and Noble

Payless
hhgregg*
Sears/Kmart
Radioshack/Verizon
Gander Mountain*
Gordmans*
BCBG Max Azria*
Family Christian*
The Limited*
MC Sports*
Eastern Mountain/Bobs Stores
Wet Seal*
American Apparel
DirectBuy
Golfsmith*
Cosi*
Aeropostle
Fox & Hound/Champps*
Sports Authority*
Logan's Road House
Hancock Fabrics*
Hastings*
Old Country Buffet*

* = all stores liquidated; no merger/buyout/

these are all companies that have gone bankrupt or announced store closings in the past 12 months. yup, everything is going to be just fine.

J Dog

  • Cishet White Male
  • ******
  • Posts: 3369
  • Good luck Reality. Hope this turns out alright.
    • Awards
Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #24 on: March 17, 2017, 06:24:07 PM »
+2
youre right, they would be. but [outdated dying anchor store] still pays the rent on a lease that was negotiated decades ago so what are you going to do, kick them out to pour your own money into knocking it down and building smaller spaces?

Anchor stores often pay an extremely discounted rate because of their anchor status.  If you're giving an anchor store a huge discount or tying their rent to their sales and they neither act as an anchor nor have appreciable sales, then you're losing money by keeping them there versus a smaller retail shop paying a higher rate (that's not to mention the higher real estate taxes you're paying on the anchor).

No shit its not ideal, but its not like commerce trends aren't constantly shifting.  The people who build strip malls expecting 50+ years of uninterrupted occupancy are, quite simply, deluded.