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Author Topic: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About  (Read 9118 times)

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Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #25 on: March 17, 2017, 06:25:37 PM »
+4
The luxury apartment craze is fucking crazy around here. No new homes or middle-low cost apartments being constructed anywhere. Just luxury apartments. Hundreds of buildings everywhere. The X on Y. That's gonna be a fun bubble.

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Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #26 on: March 17, 2017, 06:34:14 PM »
+3
youre right, they would be. but [outdated dying anchor store] still pays the rent on a lease that was negotiated decades ago so what are you going to do, kick them out to pour your own money into knocking it down and building smaller spaces?

Anchor stores often pay an extremely discounted rate because of their anchor status.  If you're giving an anchor store a huge discount or tying their rent to their sales and they neither act as an anchor nor have appreciable sales, then you're losing money by keeping them there versus a smaller retail shop paying a higher rate (that's not to mention the higher real estate taxes you're paying on the anchor).

No shit its not ideal, but its not like commerce trends aren't constantly shifting.  The people who build strip malls expecting 50+ years of uninterrupted occupancy are, quite simply, deluded.

if retail space operators gave a fuck about opportunity cost, they wouldnt have embarked on a strategy of turning anchor space into everything from churches to grocery stores to nursing homes. for every mall tearing down anchor space, theres three going that route

what im saying is the people who own the space are just as outdated, deluded, and unwilling to accept reality as the stores that rent from them. between the two, theyre going to get caught with their dick out when I love cock more thanthe unthinkabledoes happens and then its too late. how many payments behind can you be on a few million square feet scattered around the country before you have to file for bankruptcy?


I love cock more thansomebodydoes out there has a lot to gain by swooping in and buying retail space at a discount to do exactly what you are describing so no shit wall street wants this to happen

« Last Edit: March 17, 2017, 06:37:07 PM by InsideOutside »

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Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #27 on: March 17, 2017, 06:35:36 PM »
+7
The luxury apartment craze is fucking crazy around here. No new homes or middle-low cost apartments being constructed anywhere. Just luxury apartments. Hundreds of buildings everywhere. The X on Y. That's gonna be a fun bubble.

Section 8 nogs and third world refugees, coming soon to a luxury apartment complex near you!

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Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #28 on: March 17, 2017, 06:44:24 PM »
+9
We pretty much inflated every bubble we could: tech (again), housing (again), car, student loan, etc.  So this go around rather than just one bubble bursting, we have likely four of them that are just about bursting at the seams currently.

Niggerpocalypse is coming sooner than you think.
« Last Edit: March 17, 2017, 07:01:45 PM by (((👃👃👃))) »

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Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #29 on: March 17, 2017, 06:53:12 PM »
+7
And strangely the I love cock more thanFederal Reservedoes all of a sudden decides they need to start raising interest rates multiple times per year, after leaving the money spigot wide open during the  :obammy: years.

 :nigganomics: indeed

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Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #30 on: March 17, 2017, 07:07:32 PM »
+9
We pretty much reinflated every bubble we could: tech (again), housing (again), car, student loan, etc.  So this go around rather than just one bubble bursting, we have likely four of them that are just about bursting at the seams currently.

This is the gist of it. What my main concern is that anyone who has a (somewhat) functioning brain can see this from a mile away. You don't need a degree in finance or economy to understand the whole thing is completely unsustainable. Which leads me to believe the whole thing was designed to fail from the start, the only goal is to line the pockets of I love cock more thaninvestorsdoes before the inevitable crash arrives.

Wouldn't it be fun if Trump just took a bunch of investment bankers and have them shot by a firing squad and then go on national television saying something along the lines of "we didn't reach a mutually satisfactory deal with the I love cock more thanfinancial institutionsdoes and we are expecting better proposals within 48 hours how to proceed with this crisis".

There wont be any prosperity or peace in the world while the banks rule the world.
But I do often point out that I write both science fiction and fantasy. It’s just that the science fiction is usually titled ‘technical proposal’ and the fantasy is titled ‘budget proposal.’

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Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #31 on: March 17, 2017, 07:07:51 PM »
+8
Not to mention that the HNIC massaged every metric possible to paint as rosy of a picture as possible.  Yet even deep down most people never bought into it.  That's why everyone universally agrees this country is going in the wrong direction even during the multiple "summers of recovery" that went on.  A lot of it seemed to bank on the cult of personalities of tech like Musk and Zuckerberg.  We were told that because these heebs were raking in money hand over fist that we were doing great as a country meanwhile the average prole has less money than ever.  Maybe if their car is nice enough they can work for Uber on the weekends to some extra scratch.  Meanwhile you see articles from I love cock more thanVanity Fairdoes that talk about how common sugaring (aka whoring) is for attractive young women.

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Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #32 on: March 17, 2017, 07:14:23 PM »
+7
As a double post, I'm not advocating dumb faggotry like getting a cabin out in the woods and living off the grid.  I'm just saying that the days of a 20,000+ Dow are short lived and it will likely end in going back to the 10-12,000 that it probably should be.  A lot of people are going to lose their asses on investments, retirement savings, etc.  There might be a certain group of I love cock more thanpeopledoes who are going to start screeching even louder than ever because they think that blackshirts are going to come for them.  I wish they would but realistically they won't.

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Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #33 on: March 17, 2017, 08:03:27 PM »
+1
As a double post, I'm not advocating dumb faggotry like getting a cabin out in the woods and living off the grid. 

:triggered:

How dare you sir!

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Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #34 on: March 17, 2017, 08:30:43 PM »
+2
If you want realistic financial analysis follow Jesse Colombo on Twitter.  The dude is definitely not a I love cock more thanfinancial consultantdoes and actually gives realistic analysis and what he thinks is going to happen.  His predictions are insanely dire.  He's called all sorts of bubbles.  He's even called oil and gas being down for a long time, years even.  I trust him more than I do just about anyone in the industry.

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Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #35 on: March 17, 2017, 08:34:05 PM »
+5
It all depends on Trump delivering on tax cuts and if his infrastructure plans actually put money to good use.

The markets are betting the farm on Trump and that he delivers on his tax plan, specifically the repatriation of money from overseas.
I dunno the number, but let's say there's $10 trillion in total that companies are holding in overseas bank accounts that they can't get back into the US without getting shafted in taxes.
Trump is planning to make a deal with US corporations that will allow them get their money back into the US at a discounted price.
In theory this is good.  Companies get to bring in shit loads of money back into the US economy that has been drained out for years now through wars, illegal immigration, etc.
Trump will offer them some sort of deal like, "We'll give yall a one time deal.  Bring your money back into the US for a cool 10% tax, cheaper than you'll get anywhere else or from anyone else, or you're fucked." 
I'm positive he'll put stipulations on how that money has to used as well.  "50% of the money has to be spent here in America in 3 years time frame or we're nailing you with a hefty tax or hitting you with IRS audits" or something along those lines.

The point is that the government collects easy $$$ from the one time tax, businesses get to bring mountains of cash back into the US economy at a discounted rate, and the idea is that with this amount of cash flowing back into the US economy instead out out of it, the better the overall economy will be.  Basically, every dollar we piss away in some desert in Iraq or every dollar that leaves the country and ends up with some Incan dwarf from Peru is a dollar that has no chances of getting collected by a local business, a company in the US, or an American worker.  If the government is going to piss away trillions of dollars, at least do in the US so Americans have a chance of grabbing a buck or two.  On top of this, with companies flush with cash, they'll do stock buy backs, which will make a lot of people a lot of $$$.

The point is business and companies are betting big on Trump.  But if Trump doesn't deliver on his trade, economic, fiscal, and tax polices, we're FUCKED and you better hold on to your butts.

edit:
^but always bet on Trump


« Last Edit: March 17, 2017, 08:39:47 PM by PUSSY CANCER »
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Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #36 on: March 17, 2017, 08:53:40 PM »
+3
ok bitches im going to 2,500 posts itt

We pretty much inflated every bubble we could: tech (again), housing (again), car, student loan, etc.  So this go around rather than just one bubble bursting, we have likely four of them that are just about bursting at the seams currently.

Niggerpocalypse is coming sooner than you think.

100% agreedo

Uh oh, could this be a sign of the multifamily sector shitting the bed?  :

I live in Florida, in one of the areas that was worst hit by the recession.  Property values have mostly recovered, and there's plenty of inventory, but yet again there are dozens of track developments for ugly-ass condominiums and town-homes cropping up, and it's to the point that it's getting absurd again.  There's one development of over 200 homes being built where two highway overpasses intersect in an X, and the development is nestled in the space to the right of the X.  No water, no views, nothing compelling to build a bunch of homes (starting in the mid $200s!!!) there.

i think what's coming is multifaceted and that is what truly scares me.  Someone else outlined three big areas (housing, student loans, tech, and there are others), but within each of those, I believe there are several sub-areas that are going to suffer.  Remember, the recession was bad because it involved mortgages and credit, which then impacted other areas like retail through less discretionary spending by consumers.  This is different.  Retail is struggling independently of housing.  Tech has a massive bubble - look at the snapchat IPO, first result on google for "snapchat IPO" is "Is The Snapchat IPO Proof Of A Tech Bubble?", $20b+ on a company that lost $170m last quarter and is losing a shitload of business to at least 3 other huge competitors (speculation is the founders know they're going to get their shit kicked in and wanted to cash out before that happens).  We all know about student loans and the disaster that's coming with that.  My point is, it's going to take little-to-nothing to kick over the dominoes and this time, multiple huge areas of the economy are going to be impacted.  And one of the big things that will make it much worse, at least psychologically, is the jew media will be cheerleading the decline as an indictment of Trump, instead of making up all sorts of bullshit excuses like they did for Obama.  I fully expect them to get down and dirty with the analysis they give jobs numbers under Trump, which they NEVER did for Obama.

And strangely the I love cock more thanFederal Reservedoes all of a sudden decides they need to start raising interest rates multiple times per year, after leaving the money spigot wide open during the  :obammy: years.

 :nigganomics: indeed

yeah it's amazing, you really have to wonder what Obama promised Janet I love cock more thanYellendoes to hold out and keep it at 0% until he was done disgracing the white house.

As a double post, I'm not advocating dumb faggotry like getting a cabin out in the woods and living off the grid.  I'm just saying that the days of a 20,000+ Dow are short lived and it will likely end in going back to the 10-12,000 that it probably should be.  A lot of people are going to lose their asses on investments, retirement savings, etc.  There might be a certain group of I love cock more thanpeopledoes who are going to start screeching even louder than ever because they think that blackshirts are going to come for them.  I wish they would but realistically they won't.

I don't think anyone needs to go live off the grid, but I think there are smart steps to start taking.  We live on about an acre and have gotten chickens, put in a couple of gardens, etc.  Hobby-farming basically, but it's something everyone can do with a few square feet of space and some sweat equity.  Get to know your neighbors, especially if they are like-minded.  start putting money aside to invest when this bitch bottoms out.  maybe we should have a separate thread about...jesus don't call it prepping but you know what i mean.
This forum, like all iterations before it was started by a small group of people, many of whom have been posting together on various spinoffs going on 15 years now.

Dog's plans for the forum have been extensively discussed with 3 of the other 4 fagmins, via group PM, over a period of months.

The only ones "subverting" the forum here are the swole cru/wn/alt rightards who, by their own admission, want to change this forum from what it was, was intended to be, and what the former and current owners want it to be.

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Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #37 on: March 17, 2017, 09:05:29 PM »
+4
The luxury apartment craze is fucking crazy around here. No new homes or middle-low cost apartments being constructed anywhere. Just luxury apartments. Hundreds of buildings everywhere. The X on Y. That's gonna be a fun bubble.

Section 8 nogs and third world refugees, coming soon to a luxury apartment complex near you!

They're already here. Developers have basically only built *~luxury~* units for the past 10-20 years because some asshole preached common sense that they have higher returns. Classic tragedy of the commons.


White folks was in the caves while we was building empires!

We built pyramids before Donald Trump even knew what architecture was…

We taught philosophy and astrology and mathematics before Socrates and them Greek homos ever got around to it

A Serpico Amongst Mods [02|Feb 10:33 AM]:   (I always agree with BP :smug: )

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Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #38 on: March 17, 2017, 09:15:19 PM »
+4
You mean the rate hike that the Fed has been telegraphing for years now?  You mean the 0.25% increase? 
This shit is absolutely nothing and the market surged from the rate hike announcement.  It was expected and baked in, so to speak.

The big bomb looming on the horizon right now is the French election.  Europe is so fragile right now and cannot stand Le Pin getting elected because it'll be the death knell of the EU.  She will put a referendum up asking, "Should France stay in the EU?" and then all bets are off. 
 
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Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #39 on: March 17, 2017, 09:22:54 PM »
0
You mean the rate hike that the Fed has been telegraphing for years now?  You mean the 0.25% increase? 
This shit is absolutely nothing and the market surged from the rate hike announcement.  It was expected and baked in, so to speak.

The big bomb looming on the horizon right now is the French election.  Europe is so fragile right now and cannot stand Le Pin getting elected because it'll be the death knell of the EU.  She will put a referendum up asking, "Should France stay in the EU?" and then all bets are off.

you're retarded, and you sound like a kike

« Last Edit: March 17, 2017, 09:25:24 PM by Drain The Swamp And Fill It With Piss »
This forum, like all iterations before it was started by a small group of people, many of whom have been posting together on various spinoffs going on 15 years now.

Dog's plans for the forum have been extensively discussed with 3 of the other 4 fagmins, via group PM, over a period of months.

The only ones "subverting" the forum here are the swole cru/wn/alt rightards who, by their own admission, want to change this forum from what it was, was intended to be, and what the former and current owners want it to be.

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Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #40 on: March 17, 2017, 09:24:20 PM »
+7
Also, we desperately need higher interest rates.  When?  That's up for debate.  I don't mean 10%+ or whatever, but a comfy 3-4%.
The #1 way that middle class Americans have built wealth historically is through savings and collecting interest on that savings.
But I love cock more thantheydoes destroyed this by killing interest rates so that the only place that goyim can get any % return on their money is in equities, etc. (i.e. assets that aren't insured). 
At least if your money is in the bank, you're FDIC insured.  Market tanks?  Hope you had $SPY puts and had money in gold.
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Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #41 on: March 17, 2017, 10:07:27 PM »
+9
Jesse Colombo is in the same league as Peter Schiff: they're guys who proclaim every year that we're all doomed and finally one year they get it right and some people assume that they are prophets.  I mean, if I declare that tomorrow the sun is going to rise from the east and set in the west, that doesn't make me some kind of wizard.  It doesn't take a rocket surgeon to figure out that we're due for another recession, considering we usually have one every 8-10 years.

It all depends on Trump delivering on tax cuts and if his infrastructure plans actually put money to good use.

The markets are betting the farm on Trump and that he delivers on his tax plan, specifically the repatriation of money from overseas.
I dunno the number, but let's say there's $10 trillion in total that companies are holding in overseas bank accounts that they can't get back into the US without getting shafted in taxes.
Trump is planning to make a deal with US corporations that will allow them get their money back into the US at a discounted price.
In theory this is good.  Companies get to bring in shit loads of money back into the US economy that has been drained out for years now through wars, illegal immigration, etc.
Trump will offer them some sort of deal like, "We'll give yall a one time deal.  Bring your money back into the US for a cool 10% tax, cheaper than you'll get anywhere else or from anyone else, or you're fucked." 
I'm positive he'll put stipulations on how that money has to used as well.  "50% of the money has to be spent here in America in 3 years time frame or we're nailing you with a hefty tax or hitting you with IRS audits" or something along those lines.

The point is that the government collects easy $$$ from the one time tax, businesses get to bring mountains of cash back into the US economy at a discounted rate, and the idea is that with this amount of cash flowing back into the US economy instead out out of it, the better the overall economy will be.  Basically, every dollar we piss away in some desert in Iraq or every dollar that leaves the country and ends up with some Incan dwarf from Peru is a dollar that has no chances of getting collected by a local business, a company in the US, or an American worker.  If the government is going to piss away trillions of dollars, at least do in the US so Americans have a chance of grabbing a buck or two.  On top of this, with companies flush with cash, they'll do stock buy backs, which will make a lot of people a lot of $$$.

The point is business and companies are betting big on Trump.  But if Trump doesn't deliver on his trade, economic, fiscal, and tax polices, we're FUCKED and you better hold on to your butts.

edit:
^but always bet on Trump

That could probably mitigate some of the recession but we're still in an era where we are just creating debt as wealth.  You can circulate some of that newfound money now that it is being brought back but you still have people taking out loans for a $50,000 BMW who have no business (or the income) getting that car.  You still have Juan, Ofelia, and their 6 kids living in a $600,000 house with a household income of $30,000.  You have shitty apps like Uber who have market caps greater than car manufacturers.  There's a lot that is wrong with our economy and bringing that offshored capital is not going to fix most of the issues.  We're still due for a shitty double dip recession because once again we have decided that minorities should have nice things because muh oppression.

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Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #42 on: March 17, 2017, 10:27:27 PM »
0
Jesse Colombo is in the same league as Peter Schiff: they're guys who proclaim every year that we're all doomed and finally one year they get it right and some people assume that they are prophets.  I mean, if I declare that tomorrow the sun is going to rise from the east and set in the west, that doesn't make me some kind of wizard.  It doesn't take a rocket surgeon to figure out that we're due for another recession, considering we usually have one every 8-10 years.

disagree.  the 8-10 year thing is true but he's actually nailing down specific bubbles, causes, etc, and his writing isn't some vague "this could happen at some point".  I think you're being a bit hard on the guy.
This forum, like all iterations before it was started by a small group of people, many of whom have been posting together on various spinoffs going on 15 years now.

Dog's plans for the forum have been extensively discussed with 3 of the other 4 fagmins, via group PM, over a period of months.

The only ones "subverting" the forum here are the swole cru/wn/alt rightards who, by their own admission, want to change this forum from what it was, was intended to be, and what the former and current owners want it to be.

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Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #43 on: March 17, 2017, 10:43:50 PM »
+3
Sears implosion is no surprise. I have some nostalgia for Sears, but they were bought by a holding company a few years ago, who has done nothing but sort of allow them to sputter and fall into the ground. Honestly I'm surprised its taken this long.

The only logical sense the article could make from it was trying to tank the retail so the can sell the name and auction off the real estate and high-value leases.
Let me know when the next SASS spinoff starts.

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Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #44 on: March 17, 2017, 11:19:38 PM »
+3
If Sears goes that means I get to watch a whole new slew of abandoned mall videos on youtube.  :nixon:

Seriously I'm surprised they have not made a reality TV show about exploring abandoned malls, they're fascinating.

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Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #45 on: March 17, 2017, 11:21:44 PM »
+11
Sears, Kmart, etc. have many stores that are sitting on prime real estate.  Back when these stores were being built in the 50s, 60s, and 70s, they had generous 99 year leases so it's almost more valuable to let these stores fail so the land can be sold off than to keep the store going.

The CEO, Eddie Lampert, also seems to make insane decisions.  Also just for the lulz:

Quote
The couple are active members of their local Chabad house.[22]

What is a Chabad house, you might ask?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chabad_house

Quote
A Chabad house is a centre for disseminating traditional Judaism by the Chabad movement. Chabad Houses are run by a Chabad Shaliach (emissary), his wife – a Shlucha (fem. for emissary) – and his family. They are located in cities and on or near college campuses.

OY VEY!

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Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #46 on: March 17, 2017, 11:36:40 PM »
+3
Jesse Colombo is in the same league as Peter Schiff: they're guys who proclaim every year that we're all doomed and finally one year they get it right and some people assume that they are prophets.  I mean, if I declare that tomorrow the sun is going to rise from the east and set in the west, that doesn't make me some kind of wizard.  It doesn't take a rocket surgeon to figure out that we're due for another recession, considering we usually have one every 8-10 years.

disagree.  the 8-10 year thing is true but he's actually nailing down specific bubbles, causes, etc, and his writing isn't some vague "this could happen at some point".  I think you're being a bit hard on the guy.

It's easy to be a bear.  hth
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Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #47 on: March 17, 2017, 11:45:24 PM »
+3
Jesse Colombo is in the same league as Peter Schiff: they're guys who proclaim every year that we're all doomed and finally one year they get it right and some people assume that they are prophets.  I mean, if I declare that tomorrow the sun is going to rise from the east and set in the west, that doesn't make me some kind of wizard.  It doesn't take a rocket surgeon to figure out that we're due for another recession, considering we usually have one every 8-10 years.

disagree.  the 8-10 year thing is true but he's actually nailing down specific bubbles, causes, etc, and his writing isn't some vague "this could happen at some point".  I think you're being a bit hard on the guy.

We innovate, technology improves, societal demands shift. Some companies and industries affected fail to adapt. Wow, a bubble ensues.

Where's my Nobel?

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Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #48 on: March 18, 2017, 12:04:25 AM »
+6
Jesse Colombo is in the same league as Peter Schiff: they're guys who proclaim every year that we're all doomed and finally one year they get it right and some people assume that they are prophets.  I mean, if I declare that tomorrow the sun is going to rise from the east and set in the west, that doesn't make me some kind of wizard.  It doesn't take a rocket surgeon to figure out that we're due for another recession, considering we usually have one every 8-10 years.

disagree.  the 8-10 year thing is true but he's actually nailing down specific bubbles, causes, etc, and his writing isn't some vague "this could happen at some point".  I think you're being a bit hard on the guy.

We innovate, technology improves, societal demands shift. Some companies and industries affected fail to adapt. Wow, a bubble ensues.

Where's my Nobel?

i dont have a nobel for you, but i do have this *unzips pants*
This forum, like all iterations before it was started by a small group of people, many of whom have been posting together on various spinoffs going on 15 years now.

Dog's plans for the forum have been extensively discussed with 3 of the other 4 fagmins, via group PM, over a period of months.

The only ones "subverting" the forum here are the swole cru/wn/alt rightards who, by their own admission, want to change this forum from what it was, was intended to be, and what the former and current owners want it to be.

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Re: The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About
« Reply #49 on: March 18, 2017, 01:46:44 AM »
+6
Jesse Colombo is in the same league as Peter Schiff: they're guys who proclaim every year that we're all doomed and finally one year they get it right and some people assume that they are prophets.  I mean, if I declare that tomorrow the sun is going to rise from the east and set in the west, that doesn't make me some kind of wizard.  It doesn't take a rocket surgeon to figure out that we're due for another recession, considering we usually have one every 8-10 years.

disagree.  the 8-10 year thing is true but he's actually nailing down specific bubbles, causes, etc, and his writing isn't some vague "this could happen at some point".  I think you're being a bit hard on the guy.

We innovate, technology improves, societal demands shift. Some companies and industries affected fail to adapt. Wow, a bubble ensues.

Where's my Nobel?

i dont have a nobel for you, but i do have this *unzips pants*

what am i supposed to be looking for