The Next Bigger Recession That Every is Talking About

[Hollywood Shabat Goy Yaro]

Just as you shouldn't take home construction advice from Grover neither should you take financial advice. 

[David Mushroom Hedgehogstein]

The property market over in Prague is crazy...2 years ago interest rates for mortgages were as low as 1.5% on 100% LTV. Prices shot up through the roof and even changing the law on property transfer tax didn't do anything to quell the prices. Lots of Russian money flowed in too ramping everything up into empty units.
Rental costs have soared too thanks to everyone jumping on the AirB&B wagon taking rental stock off the market in favour of holiday apartments for hipster faggots. My place is 75% LTV now...locked into 2% interest for the next 5 years. That's 5 years to pay as much of it off before the inevitable slump when suddenly people can't pay their mortgages.

In another country, bank interest rates are at zero, so people are rushing into buying offplan which are more expensive than currently built stock, in a country where rental yield is tiny and mortgage rates are 5%. They swallow the bullshit marketing from developers and real estate agents.

I'm sitting on around 60k without anything worth spending it on...it's getting nothing in the bank, too risky to put it in markets...

[POST FRANK]

Let me tell you about Bitcoin

[David Mushroom Hedgehogstein]

Let me tell you about Bitcoin

Other than Chinese money laundering I don't understand why anyone would put their money into it.

[OOK OOK SCREE (D-IL)]

Also, we desperately need higher interest rates.  When?  That's up for debate.  I don't mean 10%+ or whatever, but a comfy 3-4%.
The #1 way that middle class Americans have built wealth historically is through savings and collecting interest on that savings.
But I love cock more than they does destroyed this by killing interest rates so that the only place that goyim can get any % return on their money is in equities, etc. (i.e. assets that aren't insured). 
At least if your money is in the bank, you're FDIC insured.  Market tanks?  Hope you had $SPY puts and had money in gold.

The greatest trick the Fed ever played is pretending that they control interest rates.

If the Fed raised interest rates all that would happen is we'd eventually start paying untenable interest payments on the national debt which is all made up money anyway, the Fed's balance sheet is where the damage is being done, they accept what's essentially worthless assets for fresh money, it used to be nigger and spic mortgages but is now also guaranteeing student loans to NEETS who will never ever pay them off.  Credit expansion is and has been the only real growth we've had since the early 2000's and the economy will only slow down more when the Boomers, who are the few remaining spendthrifts, start going into retirement and spend less.

This is going to get 10x worse when it's obvious that the money that was used to fund pensions was woefully underfunded due to the fact that government officials are retarded and get to ignore numbers until they blow up (and in the worst places for it, i.e. Chicago and California are all niggers who can't do basic math anyway).  We will probably go through a minor recession soon but Trump has been amazing for the markets so this next downturn will probably not be bad at all (and like I said, the Fed will keep on printing money so there won't really be a credit crunch a la 2008-2009) until pension math causes what will essentially be a generational civil war.

[As a white male I]

Let me tell you about Bitcoin

Other than Chinese money laundering I don't understand why anyone would put their money into it.

Someone's using bitcoin beyond buying drugs from silk road? 

[Virtue Signalman First Class]

I don't think anyone needs to go live off the grid, but I think there are smart steps to start taking.  We live on about an acre and have gotten chickens, put in a couple of gardens, etc.  Hobby-farming basically, but it's something everyone can do with a few square feet of space and some sweat equity. 

Yeah, it is pretty crazy what kind of variety of food you can grow in a relatively small patch of land. I don't think the complete collapse of civilization is likely at all, but on the other hand it's nice to know you have some sort of plan B if shit really hits the fan.

[Drain The Swamp And Fill It With Piss]

The property market over in Prague is crazy...2 years ago interest rates for mortgages were as low as 1.5% on 100% LTV. Prices shot up through the roof and even changing the law on property transfer tax didn't do anything to quell the prices. Lots of Russian money flowed in too ramping everything up into empty units.
Rental costs have soared too thanks to everyone jumping on the AirB&B wagon taking rental stock off the market in favour of holiday apartments for hipster faggots. My place is 75% LTV now...locked into 2% interest for the next 5 years. That's 5 years to pay as much of it off before the inevitable slump when suddenly people can't pay their mortgages.

In another country, bank interest rates are at zero, so people are rushing into buying offplan which are more expensive than currently built stock, in a country where rental yield is tiny and mortgage rates are 5%. They swallow the bullshit marketing from developers and real estate agents.

I'm sitting on around 60k without anything worth spending it on...it's getting nothing in the bank, too risky to put it in markets...

how the fuck are there still loans out there for 100% LTV?  And you're living proof of the predicament anyone with some cash is in right now - savings accounts earning 0% interest are worthless and you shouldn't tie up all of your cash in a non-liquid asset like a house, especially if you aren't even fully paying it off.  I think most people are just putting it in the market and that may be one of the reasons the market keeps setting records (and most other people just spend spend spend).  We have a really fucked up monetary policy when it makes as much sense to put your money under your mattress as it does putting it in a bank.

[Bitter Weirdo]

The property market over in Prague is crazy...2 years ago interest rates for mortgages were as low as 1.5% on 100% LTV. Prices shot up through the roof and even changing the law on property transfer tax didn't do anything to quell the prices. Lots of Russian money flowed in too ramping everything up into empty units.
Rental costs have soared too thanks to everyone jumping on the AirB&B wagon taking rental stock off the market in favour of holiday apartments for hipster faggots. My place is 75% LTV now...locked into 2% interest for the next 5 years. That's 5 years to pay as much of it off before the inevitable slump when suddenly people can't pay their mortgages.

In another country, bank interest rates are at zero, so people are rushing into buying offplan which are more expensive than currently built stock, in a country where rental yield is tiny and mortgage rates are 5%. They swallow the bullshit marketing from developers and real estate agents.

I'm sitting on around 60k without anything worth spending it on...it's getting nothing in the bank, too risky to put it in markets...

how the fuck are there still loans out there for 100% LTV?  And you're living proof of the predicament anyone with some cash is in right now - savings accounts earning 0% interest are worthless and you shouldn't tie up all of your cash in a non-liquid asset like a house, especially if you aren't even fully paying it off.  I think most people are just putting it in the market and that may be one of the reasons the market keeps setting records (and most other people just spend spend spend).  We have a really fucked up monetary policy when it makes as much sense to put your money under your mattress as it does putting it in a bank.

100 LTV ain't shit nigga. I saw some shit the other day where a borrower took out 3, yes 3 loans to buy a 250K house. It's not the first time I've seen that in recent memory either. Around here 250k ain't shit, because California

[Drain The Swamp And Fill It With Piss]

The property market over in Prague is crazy...2 years ago interest rates for mortgages were as low as 1.5% on 100% LTV. Prices shot up through the roof and even changing the law on property transfer tax didn't do anything to quell the prices. Lots of Russian money flowed in too ramping everything up into empty units.
Rental costs have soared too thanks to everyone jumping on the AirB&B wagon taking rental stock off the market in favour of holiday apartments for hipster faggots. My place is 75% LTV now...locked into 2% interest for the next 5 years. That's 5 years to pay as much of it off before the inevitable slump when suddenly people can't pay their mortgages.

In another country, bank interest rates are at zero, so people are rushing into buying offplan which are more expensive than currently built stock, in a country where rental yield is tiny and mortgage rates are 5%. They swallow the bullshit marketing from developers and real estate agents.

I'm sitting on around 60k without anything worth spending it on...it's getting nothing in the bank, too risky to put it in markets...

how the fuck are there still loans out there for 100% LTV?  And you're living proof of the predicament anyone with some cash is in right now - savings accounts earning 0% interest are worthless and you shouldn't tie up all of your cash in a non-liquid asset like a house, especially if you aren't even fully paying it off.  I think most people are just putting it in the market and that may be one of the reasons the market keeps setting records (and most other people just spend spend spend).  We have a really fucked up monetary policy when it makes as much sense to put your money under your mattress as it does putting it in a bank.

100 LTV ain't shit nigga. I saw some shit the other day where a borrower took out 3, yes 3 loans to buy a 250K house. It's not the first time I've seen that in recent memory either. Around here 250k ain't shit, because California

how is that even possible?  an FHA loan without pre-paying any points requires 3% down...on a $300,000 property, that's $9,000.  Let's use insane California prices and say it's a $900,000 property...that's $27,00.  That's a bit of money for the average person, but what business does someone have buying a million dollar property if they can't come up with $30k?  And then to need 3 loans to do it?  What, a mortgage, a loan for the down payment, and a 3rd loan for renovations?  What the fuck?

[Bitter Weirdo]

The property market over in Prague is crazy...2 years ago interest rates for mortgages were as low as 1.5% on 100% LTV. Prices shot up through the roof and even changing the law on property transfer tax didn't do anything to quell the prices. Lots of Russian money flowed in too ramping everything up into empty units.
Rental costs have soared too thanks to everyone jumping on the AirB&B wagon taking rental stock off the market in favour of holiday apartments for hipster faggots. My place is 75% LTV now...locked into 2% interest for the next 5 years. That's 5 years to pay as much of it off before the inevitable slump when suddenly people can't pay their mortgages.

In another country, bank interest rates are at zero, so people are rushing into buying offplan which are more expensive than currently built stock, in a country where rental yield is tiny and mortgage rates are 5%. They swallow the bullshit marketing from developers and real estate agents.

I'm sitting on around 60k without anything worth spending it on...it's getting nothing in the bank, too risky to put it in markets...

how the fuck are there still loans out there for 100% LTV?  And you're living proof of the predicament anyone with some cash is in right now - savings accounts earning 0% interest are worthless and you shouldn't tie up all of your cash in a non-liquid asset like a house, especially if you aren't even fully paying it off.  I think most people are just putting it in the market and that may be one of the reasons the market keeps setting records (and most other people just spend spend spend).  We have a really fucked up monetary policy when it makes as much sense to put your money under your mattress as it does putting it in a bank.

100 LTV ain't shit nigga. I saw some shit the other day where a borrower took out 3, yes 3 loans to buy a 250K house. It's not the first time I've seen that in recent memory either. Around here 250k ain't shit, because California

how is that even possible?  an FHA loan without pre-paying any points requires 3% down...on a $300,000 property, that's $9,000.  Let's use insane California prices and say it's a $900,000 property...that's $27,00.  That's a bit of money for the average person, but what business does someone have buying a million dollar property if they can't come up with $30k?  And then to need 3 loans to do it?  What, a mortgage, a loan for the down payment, and a 3rd loan for renovations?  What the fuck?

I suspect one of the loans was to cover the closing costs. You know, just like in the housing bubble days

[InsideOutside]

how is that even possible?  an FHA loan without pre-paying any points requires 3% down...on a $300,000 property, that's $9,000.  Let's use insane California prices and say it's a $900,000 property...that's $27,00.  That's a bit of money for the average person, but what business does someone have buying a million dollar property if they can't come up with $30k?  And then to need 3 loans to do it?  What, a mortgage, a loan for the down payment, and a 3rd loan for renovations?  What the fuck?

but real estate prices only go up up up so  think of it as a million on a two million dollar property


 

[Ghostse]

The property market over in Prague is crazy...2 years ago interest rates for mortgages were as low as 1.5% on 100% LTV. Prices shot up through the roof and even changing the law on property transfer tax didn't do anything to quell the prices. Lots of Russian money flowed in too ramping everything up into empty units.
Rental costs have soared too thanks to everyone jumping on the AirB&B wagon taking rental stock off the market in favour of holiday apartments for hipster faggots. My place is 75% LTV now...locked into 2% interest for the next 5 years. That's 5 years to pay as much of it off before the inevitable slump when suddenly people can't pay their mortgages.

In another country, bank interest rates are at zero, so people are rushing into buying offplan which are more expensive than currently built stock, in a country where rental yield is tiny and mortgage rates are 5%. They swallow the bullshit marketing from developers and real estate agents.

I'm sitting on around 60k without anything worth spending it on...it's getting nothing in the bank, too risky to put it in markets...

how the fuck are there still loans out there for 100% LTV?  And you're living proof of the predicament anyone with some cash is in right now - savings accounts earning 0% interest are worthless and you shouldn't tie up all of your cash in a non-liquid asset like a house, especially if you aren't even fully paying it off.  I think most people are just putting it in the market and that may be one of the reasons the market keeps setting records (and most other people just spend spend spend).  We have a really fucked up monetary policy when it makes as much sense to put your money under your mattress as it does putting it in a bank.

100 LTV ain't shit nigga. I saw some shit the other day where a borrower took out 3, yes 3 loans to buy a 250K house. It's not the first time I've seen that in recent memory either. Around here 250k ain't shit, because California

how is that even possible?  an FHA loan without pre-paying any points requires 3% down...on a $300,000 property, that's $9,000.  Let's use insane California prices and say it's a $900,000 property...that's $27,00.  That's a bit of money for the average person, but what business does someone have buying a million dollar property if they can't come up with $30k?  And then to need 3 loans to do it?  What, a mortgage, a loan for the down payment, and a 3rd loan for renovations?  What the fuck?

FHA pretty much doesn't exist in Cali. FHA caps out at $675,000 and that won't buy you shit unless you're out in the extreme boonies.

[David Mushroom Hedgehogstein]

The property market over in Prague is crazy...2 years ago interest rates for mortgages were as low as 1.5% on 100% LTV. Prices shot up through the roof and even changing the law on property transfer tax didn't do anything to quell the prices. Lots of Russian money flowed in too ramping everything up into empty units.
Rental costs have soared too thanks to everyone jumping on the AirB&B wagon taking rental stock off the market in favour of holiday apartments for hipster faggots. My place is 75% LTV now...locked into 2% interest for the next 5 years. That's 5 years to pay as much of it off before the inevitable slump when suddenly people can't pay their mortgages.

In another country, bank interest rates are at zero, so people are rushing into buying offplan which are more expensive than currently built stock, in a country where rental yield is tiny and mortgage rates are 5%. They swallow the bullshit marketing from developers and real estate agents.

I'm sitting on around 60k without anything worth spending it on...it's getting nothing in the bank, too risky to put it in markets...

how the fuck are there still loans out there for 100% LTV?  And you're living proof of the predicament anyone with some cash is in right now - savings accounts earning 0% interest are worthless and you shouldn't tie up all of your cash in a non-liquid asset like a house, especially if you aren't even fully paying it off.  I think most people are just putting it in the market and that may be one of the reasons the market keeps setting records (and most other people just spend spend spend).  We have a really fucked up monetary policy when it makes as much sense to put your money under your mattress as it does putting it in a bank.

I'm not sure about now in Prague, but a year ago 100% LTV was still available, and the banks would always be generous in their valuations (mine was valued at 6.8 million czk, bought it for 5.6 million which seemed to be the top end of 'reasonable' according to my calculations).
I know that where I am now, people are being encouraged to invest their money in property, or binary options, or stocks, or whatever snake oil is being sold due to the record low interest rates, and they sure as hell are emptying their bank accounts.
Me? I'm leaving the bulk of my money in the bank and just playing Forex with a few grand...I want everything to burn to the ground ASAP so I can buy low...

[blasting_asshole]

This is news about Uber's way-too-high market cap. Another promising looking IPO that'll be going to shit, because ~tech company~ shopped around for the highest possible appraisal they could find.

Every fucking time. I'm starting to think any random pile of tech trash could go public with a modest appraisal and become incredibly profitable, just by over-achieving their slowpoke quarterlies.

Friend of mine is actually doing this with his website that's been around for 8 years running. Not even negotiating with VCs anymore, over cap evals. Just "Suuuuuuuuuuuure, sounds great! Pleasure doing business with you." He calls it taking shit offers to live comfortably.

[J Dog]

100 LTV ain't shit nigga. I saw some shit the other day where a borrower took out 3, yes 3 loans to buy a 250K house. It's not the first time I've seen that in recent memory either. Around here 250k ain't shit, because California

80-10-10 or really any piggyback loans are ingenious.  On which loan is the home buyer most likely to default?  Why, the 80% one of course.  Homebuyer defaults on the 80, keeps paying the 10s thinking "well, at least I'm paying something" without realizing that he will have zero equity in his home when the 80 lender forecloses 5 years later.

[POST FRANK]

Can we turn this into a general economics thread

What are your all's expectations towards automation & universal basic income

Or is the UBI meme just an attempt to get the whites on the gibs teat

edit: that typo tho

[The Trumpriarch]

an attempt to get the whites on the gibs teat

[Handyman]

Trump's policies will produce another huge boom next decade.   

[Drain The Swamp And Fill It With Piss]

Can we turn this into a general economies thread

yes

What are your all's expectations towards automation & universal basic income

automation is the future, yes, but people are overplaying the replacement idea.  automation is about augmenting human abilities.  Peter Thiel writes about this extensively, along with some other lesser known authors.  It's popular to say that everyone's going to be replaced by robots and they can sit at home and collect a government paycheck.  But this will be the same thing that happened with the cotton gin, automated textile machines, swtich-board operators, etc.  Less people will be needed to make manufactured item X, but people will still be needed to program, service, set up, etc the machines that make item X.  We're years away from this happening anyway, and like anything else, it's going to be expensive as hell and therefor only useful for really expensive items.  McDonald's Happymeal toys are still going to be made by peasants in China.

Much as people want to believe, we're a long, long way away from a Skynet-style supercomputer that can manage it's own robotic ecosystem with no input from humans.  The only thing automation is going to do is free up more people to work in other areas.  Have no doubt, it's going to be a really, really painful transition, way worse than the 80s/90s with computers or the 90s/00s with the internet, but it isn't going to be the end of capitalism like all these hipster faggots are claiming.

edit: universal basic income is a complete joke

[J Dog]

What are your all's expectations towards universal basic income

Universal basic income sounds like consumerist communism.  The government could theoretically provide food, shelter and whatever else to meet a person's basic needs, but they don't want that.  They want to be able to not work and still buy vidya games and Netflix subscriptions. 

But what happens when a family cashes their UBI check and wastes it all on shit?  Are we going to let them starve or get kicked out of their home?  What "personal responsibility" safeguards are baked into UBI?

UBI is the ultimate, "this economy shit is hard" solution to the world's problems.  And like communism, it fails because it doesn't account for human nature.

[POST FRANK]

Can we turn this into a general economies thread

yes

What are your all's expectations towards automation & universal basic income

Much as people want to believe, we're a long, long way away from a Skynet-style supercomputer that can manage it's own robotic ecosystem with no input from humans. 

Those nerds had better figure out how I can upload my mind before I die

[Handyman]

Can we turn this into a general economies thread

yes

What are your all's expectations towards automation & universal basic income

Much as people want to believe, we're a long, long way away from a Skynet-style supercomputer that can manage it's own robotic ecosystem with no input from humans. 

Those nerds had better figure out how I can upload my mind before I die

You're still going to die though.  The computer version of you will be a different entity.   

[POST FRANK]

No, I'm not 

[Bitter Weirdo]

Frank-O-Tron will exist as a hyper intelligent shitposting AI until one night after hours the Mexican cleaning lady accidentally unplugs him by tripping over an extension cord.