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Author Topic: 2016 Predictions  (Read 12027 times)

Colonial Sanders

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #50 on: January 03, 2016, 03:54:02 PM »
+4
The Saudis and OPEC are a paper tiger.

1. The estimated price demand elasticity of oil is greater than 0.1  (in fact the best paper I've seen puts it at around 0.4 for global short run price demand elasticity, obviously higher for long run).  And many of the lower estimates come from periods when the marginal consumer was a relatively prosperous European or Japanese driver rather than a dirt poor Indian or Chinese peasant.

2. Saudi Arabia now produces around 10% of global production.

3. Saudi Arabia has very low costs of oil production.

These three facts suggest that Saudi Arabia's ability in the past to correct the overproduction of other OPEC members and maintain cartel discipline were simply the result of private profit maximization.  Saudi Arabia is basically revenue maximizing over time given its very low costs.  With elasticity greater than 0.1 and production at around 10% of global value, when Saudi Arabia cuts production 1%, prices rise less than 1%, reducing revenues.  When elasticity was lower and Saudi Arabia more important, they could maintain cartel discipline and correct the overproduction of cheaters by reducing output, but they could do so because it was in their short term best interests to do so.  The Saudis have been producing at or near their limit since 1992 or so.  The last time they really cut output was in the '80s, when their maximum possible production was closer to 20% of global output and elasticity of demand was much lower (because marginal consumers were richer on average and inflation adjusted prices were or recently had been lower than they currently are, at least for consumers after taxes).

US O&G is screwed by high production costs and the strong dollar, and that will drive oil prices up somewhat, but even if US production falls to zero the Saudis don't have power anymore to raise prices the way they did in the '80s by cutting their output in half and actually making more money because of it.

cis scum 1.0

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #51 on: January 03, 2016, 07:29:41 PM »
+3
You have no idea what you are talking about. The Saudis still have a tight firm grip on OPEC and they are the ones responsible for the drop in oil (which happens to be at the lowest price they can afford without utterly fucking themselves).

The second the NA petro industry is well fucked, they will hike the prices like crazy over a couple of months (blaming it mostly on the fact that the NA petro industry is not producing anything anymore and the market is coming up short and blah blah blah and they will start raking in money like they did up to last year.

Straight up economic terrorism and there's fuck all we can do. It's infuriating.

neat

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #52 on: January 03, 2016, 08:46:32 PM »
+6
Well cis scum, lomo says the free market should fix this problem

SSOUL TRANN

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #53 on: January 04, 2016, 03:20:07 AM »
0
 :popcorn:
"If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen."


cis scum 1.0

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #54 on: January 04, 2016, 09:16:16 AM »
+1
Well cis scum, lomo says the free market should fix this problem

why did you have to go ahead and do that

:myecred2:


On a serious note: He would be right to say that the free market would actually solve all of those problems, because OPEC's involvement in crude oil and its tight control on it is the very opposite of what a free market is.

bigperm

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #55 on: January 04, 2016, 09:55:49 AM »
0
This is a big factor as to why Hillary will not win.  They can no longer blame Bush and have people take it seriously.  When recessions happen, people blame the people who are in office and in this case, it will be Obama and Co.  Hillary will do her best to say, "hey, it wasn't me" but she's of the party that caused this mess so she's still going to be on the hook for it.  Trump being Trump will be a 1-2 punch that will cause Democrats to lose big.  Again, it wouldn't surprise me to see Trump getting over 400 electoral votes. 

My Prediction for 2016: We will not have another recession just yet.

What happens when the recession hits in Q4 2017? Trump wins in a landslide, and then he's saddled with another downturn right in the middle of his first term.


White folks was in the caves while we was building empires!

We built pyramids before Donald Trump even knew what architecture was…

We taught philosophy and astrology and mathematics before Socrates and them Greek homos ever got around to it

A Serpico Amongst Mods [02|Feb 10:33 AM]:   (I always agree with BP :smug: )

OOK OOK SCREE (D-IL)

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #56 on: January 04, 2016, 08:09:20 PM »
+1
Well cis scum, lomo says the free market should fix this problem

On a serious note: He would be right to say that the free market would actually solve all of those problems, because OPEC's involvement in crude oil and its tight control on it is the very opposite of what a free market is.

LOL there's no such thing as a free market when it comes to oil.  Anything that does not have a substitute that is readily available, requires that much capital to develop (since all the easy to extract oil is long gone) and is that critical to the operation of the world inevitably gets tightly controlled and used for political purposes.  Hell, there are tons of alternatives to things like diamonds, but because demand is so artificially enhanced by marketing and there's a social stigma against artificial diamonds, they're also exempt.  There are a lot of conditions you need to meet before market economics kicks in as the end all be all for pricing, and oil does not come close to any except being non-perishable.

Saying the free market would fix oil is like saying getting a new calculator will make you better at math, it sounds like a real statement until you spend 5 seconds thinking about it.

neat

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #57 on: January 07, 2016, 12:53:50 PM »
+10

The Trumpriarch

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #58 on: January 07, 2016, 01:00:32 PM »
+6
Cosby will not be found guilty of sexual assault, but they'll get him on some other charge.  The media will play it like the courts failed to find him guilty while heavily implying that the few charges that did stick mean that he had raped all those women.  The Jews are behind it all because they don't want black father figures in the public consciousness.
cry "bigot!" and let slip the troons of war

Rocket

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #59 on: January 07, 2016, 05:27:20 PM »
+1
The DA already declined to prosecute Popsicle Bill.
Yes, that is me in court with my enormous penis.


Torpid Sloth

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #60 on: January 09, 2016, 10:17:54 PM »
+3
There will be a relatively popular campaign to allow Obama to run for a third term. Or maybe just have him stay president without an election.

DangerClose

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #61 on: January 10, 2016, 12:58:32 AM »
+4
-Trump is not the nominee, Hillary wins by an uninteresting margin in one of the lowest turnout elections in the last 20 years. Democrats pick up some house and Senate seats but not enough to flip the Senate.

-With her "mandate" in hand, Hillary plunges into... getting absolutely nothing done. We head back towards recession as real-estate bubbles and the tech bubble 2.0 finally start to pop, in addition to the Saudi's securing their Pyrrhic victory trying to strangle the American energy industry.

-Civil unrest in the US continues over various shit; police shootings, mass shootings, rape controversies, etc. None of it reaches the fever pitch preppers and self-described leftist accellerationists wish for. Basically more pointless marches, navel gazing, people fighting on social media, etc.

-A notable leftist SJW-type in Europe finally gets raped or killed by the very people they're defending. Absolutely nothing is learned, and it's memoryholed after an embarrassing amount of typical commenters twisting themselves into knots over it.

-Regular non-insane human beings really start pushing back against the fringe-leftist poz after it goes one step too far- an event I can't really make a guess at. Too bad for the GOP/Far-Right, the reaction of normal typical non-voters isn't to rush into their arms, but rather to adopt views that can be more described as, "The parts of libertarian philosophy I like - the parts I don't like + my personal wedge issue beliefs". Basically people start heading their own way- unfortunately they still either don't vote or just pull the lever for the R/D they're used to because actual change is scary.

-Russia is further drawn into Syria, and ISIS goes to work in earnest on them in turn. Russia makes marginal gains and Putin finally begins to look out of his depth because Russia is most certainly not this power people think it is.

-China's grip on it's economy tightens in a desperate attempt to stave off the inevitable collapse, it continues to not work. Ghost cities continue to sit empty, manufacturing continues to slip away, the water becomes more undrinkable, the air becomes more unbreathable. Cracks begin to show in the classic Asian facade of "harmony".

-Japan continues to rattle sabers with China in an attempt to maintain some sort of national dignity and prod their dwindling young population to join the military we're going to let them have. The second lost decade continues.

-More potential "Black Death" level population % killer viruses and particularly bacteria continue to show up. Since they originate from poor countries on the Asian continent, the world continues to not give a shit and pour research money into boner pills rather than anti-biotic alternatives.

-Social media sites make a big push to shove the right-wing off their services. It does not go well.

For Fun:

-The new Ghostbusters is an absolute turd and bombs horribly at the boxoffice. Leftist commentariat breaks their own backs bending over trying to explain it, eventually settling on blaming right-wingers and saying that it'll be "properly appreciated" years later.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2016, 01:04:18 AM by DangerClose »

cis scum 1.0

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #62 on: January 10, 2016, 12:59:10 AM »
+3
-Sean Penn will get brutally murdered

The Watcher

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #63 on: January 10, 2016, 01:08:02 PM »
0
There will be a relatively popular campaign to allow Obama to run for a third term. Or maybe just have him stay president without an election.
Adding this to my personal 2016 predicting list.
His name was Harry Anderson

Fuck Glitterbomber

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #64 on: January 12, 2016, 11:59:43 PM »
+3
Refugee on citizen rape statistics start leaking out in Europe and they are not good. Not for the citizens anyway, basically free pussy for Ahmet and company.
Couldn't even wait two weeks, could they?

edit: And as far as I am concerned SA's attempt to kill fracking is throwing sand in an ocean. They can stop it all by lowering the price, yes, but the oil's still there and it will be exploited again if prices raise high enough to make that exploitation profitable. Maybe you should have held that price at 100 all along instead of being greedy bastards last time, sheikh.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2016, 12:31:16 AM by Hang Glitterbomber »

Sailor Troon

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #65 on: January 14, 2016, 03:08:10 AM »
+7
2016 is going to be a do or die moment for the left. They've put the past several years talking about "feminism" this and "racism" that; now they have to defend these ideas in an environment that can turn suddenly hostile.

*Bernie Sanders is going to be key for the American left. If he does not get the nomination, then I expect all hell to break loose in the American left because they've put all their hopes and dreams in him. If he loses (which I expect he will), the left will go nuts blaming the general public for being too dumb to understand Sanders' proposals and falling for the media's tricks. Then, they're turn on each other, like any good leftist movement does, after seeing their attacks on Joe Sixpack will do nothing. Eventually, they'll start being disillusioned with the whole leftism thing after seeing that all of their years of vigrously defending the left on Twitter and the internet haven't translated into actual political change.

*The European refugee crisis is going to hurt the left a lot the more rape and sexual assault we hear the refugees are involved in. Feminists have tied themselves to intersectional feminism and anti-racism so much that they're more interested in defending the rapists because of their religion than the women that were attacked. The more feminists double down on protecting the Muslim rapists instead of women, the more they'll discredit themselves in the eye of the public. The Cologne rape attack is only a sign of things to come for feminism.

*Terrorism will be a big issue throughout 2016. If attacks continue, the left is going to be facing issues when it comes to discussing. There's only so many times the left can say "The West caused the ME to become a hellhole!" and other non-answers before people say "fuck this; just attack/nuke the ragheads".

tender of the rape garden

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #66 on: January 14, 2016, 03:59:23 AM »
0
-Sean Penn will get brutally murdered

I say he's going to either have a "tragic accident" or just disappear without a trace.

Muh Dick

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #67 on: January 14, 2016, 04:43:07 AM »
0


*The European refugee crisis is going to hurt the left a lot the more rape and sexual assault we hear the refugees are involved in. Feminists have tied themselves to intersectional feminism and anti-racism so much that they're more interested in defending the rapists because of their religion than the women that were attacked. The more feminists double down on protecting the Muslim rapists instead of women, the more they'll discredit themselves in the eye of the public. The Cologne rape attack is only a sign of things to come for feminism.


Hmm. So we know feminists don't care if white women get raped by towelheads. What happens when towelheads rape a black woman?
SOMEBODY SENT ME A .GIF THAT GAVE ME A JULIUS SEIZURE

Call Me CisMale

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #68 on: January 15, 2016, 06:58:34 AM »
+2


*The European refugee crisis is going to hurt the left a lot the more rape and sexual assault we hear the refugees are involved in. Feminists have tied themselves to intersectional feminism and anti-racism so much that they're more interested in defending the rapists because of their religion than the women that were attacked. The more feminists double down on protecting the Muslim rapists instead of women, the more they'll discredit themselves in the eye of the public. The Cologne rape attack is only a sign of things to come for feminism.


Hmm. So we know feminists don't care if white women get raped by towelheads. What happens when towelheads rape a black woman?

They will always race to defend the minority offender at the expense of the victim, because ultimately modern Feminism isn't about the rights of women, it's just the Female Wing of International Marxism. Just blame it on the white man.

Small Weinered Goon

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #69 on: January 15, 2016, 07:39:24 AM »
+4
Fuck it, why not:

1) Donald Trump will win the election, securing over 400 electoral votes, and obtaining over 55% of the popular vote.  States that were thought to be lost to the Democrats forever, like Oregon, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine will go red this go around.  The election gets ugly.  Hillary "takes a stand" and continues to play the MUH VAGINA card and has Bill Clinton stump for her.  She gets increasingly unstable as those two strategies backfire on her.  The media "takes a stand" as well, declaring a Trump blackout where they refuse to report on Trump; this gets abandoned after a few days when ratings drop and Trump's lead continues to widen.  As Trump's lead increases to double digits, we see a surge of left wing death threats and occasional bouts of violence.  The media frames this in a way that makes it seem like it is all the GOP's fault.  Certain voting locations will have armed guards.  Fat leftists will start interrogating voters in line and threaten to fight any Republicans.  This fires up the GOP base, who come out against the Democrats in larger and larger numbers.  Trump either goes with Ted Cruz or a respected political independent as the VP.  Justin Trudeau, offering a chance to troll the new President, considers Democratic voters to be refugees and will let 10,000 into Canada; only a few hundred take him up on the offer.  Obama stumps for Hillary at first but is eventually considered a liability and she tells him to go away.  Obama spends the last few months pre-touring for his new speaking tour, where he will gather tens of millions of dollars giving speeches about how everything that went wrong was the GOP's fault.  The GOP come close to capturing a supermajority in both the House and Senate but are a few seats short, ensuring Democratic fuckery until they get kicked out of office in the 2018 midterms.

1A) It will be revealed officially sometime mid year that Hillary has health issues but she's totally ok guise!  They have to make the official announcement because comments keep leaking that Hillary is disoriented and needs to keep taking naps to recharge.  Democrats retaliate by making fun of Donald's hair.  Remember, making fun of appearances is cool if it isn't a Democrat.  Hillary's sob story about how healthy she is gets ignored and people focus on her admitting she has minor health problems.

1B) When Trump wins, the GOPe will respond by being faggots.  "Well, even though he gave us our greatest victory since 1988 and almost gave us a supermajority, it still doesn't mean that he's going to get his way when he's President!"  Trump immediately begins stumping Paul Ryan in speeches and on social media, to the point where by December, there is a lot of pressure for Ryan to step down as speaker of the house.  Ryan will step down sometime in 2017 and a more Trump friendly speaker ends up getting the spot.

1C) The Bush legacy is fucked forever as a result of being stumped by Trump.  Jeb's half breed son will fart around a little more in Texas politics and then he will go away.  After that, you never hear about a Bush again running for high office again.  Jeb drops out when he loses Florida and throws a fit.  He talks about running as an independent but he doesn't do shit.  Through gritted teeth, he might give Trump some type of backhanded compliment.  At best, he will offer a generic statement like "Any one of us could defeat Hillary Clinton."  His legacy will be known as _the_ cuckservative.

1D) Hillary picks Julian Castro or some other effete Latino as the VP.  The media strokes her clit for this and calls it a game changer.  However this Latino ends up being the Democratic Sarah Palin and quickly becomes a liability.  The VP pick ends up playing the race card since Hillary can't.  It ends up either backfiring or made ineffective.  A couple weeks after the VP pick, there are calls to recall this guy.  Since Hillary makes decisions based on polls, word leaks out that she has some backup candidates in mind.  This ends up backfiring on her and she ends up having to publicly back her poor decision processes.  Trump secures 35-45 percent of the Latino vote, much to the chagrin of the Democrats.

unprivsplain

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #70 on: January 16, 2016, 11:48:21 AM »
+7


*The European refugee crisis is going to hurt the left a lot the more rape and sexual assault we hear the refugees are involved in. Feminists have tied themselves to intersectional feminism and anti-racism so much that they're more interested in defending the rapists because of their religion than the women that were attacked. The more feminists double down on protecting the Muslim rapists instead of women, the more they'll discredit themselves in the eye of the public. The Cologne rape attack is only a sign of things to come for feminism.


Hmm. So we know feminists don't care if white women get raped by towelheads. What happens when towelheads rape a black woman?
Not sure if it's even worth thinking about since nobody rapes black women other than black men.

tender of the rape garden

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #71 on: January 16, 2016, 05:00:40 PM »
+3


*The European refugee crisis is going to hurt the left a lot the more rape and sexual assault we hear the refugees are involved in. Feminists have tied themselves to intersectional feminism and anti-racism so much that they're more interested in defending the rapists because of their religion than the women that were attacked. The more feminists double down on protecting the Muslim rapists instead of women, the more they'll discredit themselves in the eye of the public. The Cologne rape attack is only a sign of things to come for feminism.


Hmm. So we know feminists don't care if white women get raped by towelheads. What happens when towelheads rape a black woman?
Not sure if it's even worth thinking about since nobody rapes black women other than black men.

Pretty sure people who fuck goats would have no problem with sticking it in a different kind of animal

Autistic Yankee

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #72 on: January 16, 2016, 05:22:33 PM »
0
Well cis scum, lomo says the free market should fix this problem

 :clappo:

There has never been a free market in fossil fuels.  I think everyone here can say that the current (non free) market for energy is pretty much 100% ideal and cant really be improved upon.  Why would we want to change the status quo by making energy markets free for the first time in history?  That makes no sense.  What we need is even more government intervention (if that's even possible, we are almost at peak socialism in this industry already, hence the current ideal state of oil markets right now).
:lomo2:    :lomo2:  
Chomp!  I'll totally be motivated to get off my ass, overcome my social anxiety and fear of failure and go to college once Bernie Sanders gives it to me for free like a handy from Lomos mom in an Arby's Men's room-I mean a Gender Inclusive Rest Facility.

Fuck Glitterbomber

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #73 on: January 31, 2016, 10:25:37 PM »
+1
Not just one but at least two major films come out that "challenge gender stereotypes" by having females playing roles that would traditionally be played by men AND flop horribly.

My missing supervisor at work turns out to be in rehab.

Quote
The Weinstein Company's Natalie Portman-led Western Jane Got A Gun misfired out of the gates, bringing in only $803,000 on a $25 million budget.
25 million isn't "major" but its getting there. Ghost Busters will basically be a freebie anymore.

Supervisor update has him gone now, with rehab being the rumor. We'll probably never know for sure.

Gentilen't

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Re: 2016 Predictions
« Reply #74 on: February 19, 2016, 04:44:41 PM »
+4
i recently had a horrible vision of the future. maybe not in 2016 but in the near future: federally mandated adoption of nigchildren. you begin to say "well, they cant-" but when our future politicians will be out-liberaling each other, expect to see this.

sincerely, TIME MAN
please delete this